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tv   Nightly Business Report  PBS  October 29, 2012 7:00pm-7:30pm PDT

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>> this is n.b.r. >> tom: good evening. i'm tom hudson. susie gharib will be along a little later in the program. with 50 million people in her path, hurricane sandy makes her full presence felt in the northeast. the slow moving storm has wall street closed for business, cancelled thousands of flights and shut down countless businesses. sandy's reach stretches hundreds of miles. we will talk about its potential impact on everything from economic growth to energy prices. that and more tonight on "n.b.r."! as we go on the air tonight, hurricane sandy is ready to make landfall in the u.s., already it's an historic storm, with historic preparations. stock markets closed. and coast lines evacuated with tens of millions of people sitting in the forecast path of the massive storm. sandy is a huge storm expected
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to come ashore in southern new jersey. but the hurricane force winds have been battering the eastern seaboard for hours. those winds extend out 175 miles from the center of the storm. those winds are pushing the atlantic ocean up and over many coast-lines. from rhode island, south to the jersey shore. coastal flooding is a significant risk thanks to the storm surge, potentially reaching 11 feet in new york harbor. battery park on the tip of manhattan is under a mandatory evacuation, as waves already have topped the sea wall. low lying areas are at substantial risk of flood waters, including the wall street area, especially if the worst of the surge hits during high tide tonight, at 9pm eastern time. that threat of flooding was one reason u.s. stock marks were closed today, the first un- scheduled shdo september 11 attacks 11 years ago. and there will be no stock trading tomorrow either.
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susie gharib has more on the historic market closure from new york. >> sie: it was supposed to be a busy monday on wall street. investors were gearing up for another round of earnings reports. but hurricane sandy changed that, and it was quiet, and dark at the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq. all trading in the stock markets was closed. many companies delayed the release of their quarterly reports; a move that comes in the peak of third quarter earnings season. pfizer, mcgraw hill, entergy and others said today they would postpone their earnings announcements. at first, the n.y.s.e. had planned to only shut down the trading floor; that would have meant operating as an all- electronic exchange for the first time in its 200 year history. but late sunday big board officials, consulting with other exchanges and brokerage firms, decided to close all trading operations. the nyse said in a statement,
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>> tom: meanwhile, it was a shortened session of trading for the bond market. today, the ten year note rose 8/32, the yield: 1.72%. the treasury market will close for the entire session tomorrow. seven states and the district of columbia have already been declared in states of emergency, opening the way for the federal coordination of money and resources for disaster relief efforts. at the white house today, president obama said officials are ready. >> there's been extraordinarily close coordination between state, federal, and local governments. and so we're confident that the assets are prepositioned for an effective response in the aftermath of the storm. r david paulison knows about mobilizing the federal government's response to a hurricane. he was in two weeks after hurricane katrina. are you confident that fema
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is prepared given the sheer size of this storm, almost a thousand miles in dimer. >> it is a huge storm and the impact will on the storm is so big, it is impacting several states from dc all the way up to maine at the same time. but i am rae very comfortable. we have a great administrator running the organization. he gets it, he's from florida, a good emergency manager. doesn't run around with his hair on fire. so i'm confident they will do a good job. >> on a conference call today n fact, your successor, mr. fugate said the disaster fund at fema has a billion dollars in t more or less. is that enough for this kind of response that will be necessary? >> probably at the end of expenses will be more than that. but yes, it's enough for now. what the president has done, the president has done a prelandfall declaration of all of the states up the east coast. so that allows the administrator to move supplies in now, move people in now, rescue teams in, and to get ready, work with those emergency managers to make sure the states are
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ready and femaed is ready to respond. >> tom: clearly rescue efforts initially will be focused on humanity, on rescuing folks that are stranded, trapped or in danger. but quickly you move to recovery effort. what is necessary for fema in order to make that recovery effort begin when it needs to? >> first of all, fema can't do it all. it takes a combination of private business. they've got to get heavily involved in it because they have all the resources. working with the states, and focus on those areas with the most damage. we need to get grocery stores open. we need to get gas stations open. and we need to get our financial institutions open. if you get those three things open that is about 80% of our problem. >> tom: all three of those rely on electricity, on utilities. >> absolutely. >> tom: that's key. >> it is true. and preparing ahead of time is the key. here in florida, publix grocery stores, for instance, has put generators in all of their stores up the state of florida. they know they have to open right away. there is actually a law in the state of florida, also, that if you have more than you have to have a hookups
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regenerater. so we're prepared here to make sure we can get those things up and running. >> tom: we're talking about states that aren't-- this is the second hurricane in 14 months, but new york, new jersey, delaware, pennsylvania, connecticut, these are not hurricane-prepared states historically speaking. >> historically that's correct. thissretty resilient people up there, though. >> tom: sure. >> wwe are hoping is they local emergency managers did the things they need to do and it will be hile before we get electricity back. that will be an issue. and we're going have to make sure there is adequate supply of generators to get the key things up and running like our grocery stores, gas stations, hospitals, and make sure we get those upjohn line first. >> you inherited a bee's nest worth of trouble after you came in two weeks after hurricane katrina. how has the agency changed in order to respond to sandy today? >> couple things. one is changing the culture of the organization from a react to proactive organization. and administrator has beed it that on. you see him responding
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already, even before landfall. too is hut putting the ride leadership in place. when i took over we did not have the right leadership. now we are stocking fema from top to bottom with emergency managers who have been there and done that. and craig is doing that, best of luck to you and your former colleagues, david paulson former fema administrator now with global emergency solutions. still ahead on our program tonight, thousands of flights cancelled still ahead, thousands of flights cancelled. deliveries and shipments into the northeast on hold, sandy's impact on transportation, and energy. it's been a relatively quiet weather year for the nation's insurance industry, but sandy changes that. the storm is hitting one of the country's most densely populated regions where property values are high. while that could mean sizable losses for insurance companies, diane eastabrook reports the industry should be able to handle the hit. >> reporter: as hurricane sandy barrels toward the heavily populated northeast, insurance companies are bracing themselves for potentially heavy losses. but analysts say they've
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experienced a lot worse. >> as a category one storm with roughly 75-mile-an-hour winds at landfall this will be a severe storm, but similar to past noreasters. >> reporter: last year's hurricane irene was the most recent storm to pummel the northeast. it cost the industry roughly $4.3 billion in insured losses. analysts can't yet predict how steep losses from sandy will be, but they say the companies with the most exposure include: liberty mutual, travelers, allstate, and chubb. auden thinks those firms will be able to shoulder a financial hit if the storm's damage mirrors that of irene. >> with every event companies gather more information on potential losses, so catastrophe losses become much more sophisticated. companies use those to measure aggregation of losses and potential losses from a given event.
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>> reporter: damage from wind, falling trees, and rain coming through roofs is covered by standard insurance policies. but analysts fear much of the damage from sandy to homes and businesses is likely to come from storm surge flooding which isn't. the insurance information itite estimates roughly 300,000 homes in thhease nort could be vulnerable to this type of event. but the institute is optimistic many homeowners have flood insurance. >> nothing sells flood coverage like a flood and when hurricane irene hit last year there was widespread flooding throughout the northeast and many people did go out and buy flood insurance policies after that. so as long as they kept that policy enforced they'll be protected in the event they have flooding or storm surge damage from hurricane sandy. many insurance companies say they have hundreds of adjusters waiting to assess damage after the storm. still analysts say it will take weeks if, not months to settle all claims. diane eastabrook, "n.b.r.," chicago.
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>> tom: joel prakken is the chairman of macro-economic advisers. he is with us from st. louis. you heard the report on the potential of covered insurance damage. is a case of economic activity delayed or destroyed. >> well, all manner of economic activity will be delayed for a few days if not a few weeks. much of that will be made up within the fourth quarter. so fourth quarter gdp growth is likely to be little affected, i would say, by these delays. i would not be surprised, however, if macroeconomic advisors index of gdp by month fluctuates wildly down in october and wildly up in november. the storm will, however, destroy some productive ca approximatesity-- capacity. and the extent that ourca ss toits produce goo and services is undermined that will be a longer lasting restraint on gdp growth so the important question is how much productive capacity will b in fact destroyed. the granddaddy of all storms, of course n this regard i
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katrina. government estimates are that about a hundred billion dollars of the nation's capital stock was destroyed then. cbo estimated at the time that that reduced gdp growth by about half a percentage point in the second half of 2005. esimates of sandy that i'm seeing suggest damages running in the range of 5 to 10 billion dollars, only one tenth of what we saw in hurricane katrina. so i think the macroeconomic effects are going to be quite modest, measured in terms of 1/10 of a percentage point or two. so disastrous, perhaps, for so the directly affected by as a macroeconomic event relatively modest. >> let me pick up on a point you just made there joel, and that is the damage to productive capacity. you're an economic forecaster, not a weather forecaster. i know that. but that said, some major economic damage is likely to come from power outages. and that has a longer lasting impact on productive capacity than say a downed tree or not being able to get to work or the stock market closed for a couple of days.
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>> correct, if electrical utility output is undermined for any period of time, then we're talking about longer delays, and return to normal proction and slightly bigger hit on the economy. s this's certainly true. >> m: what about the imact on the job market. we were supposed to have the october jobs numbers this friday. still expected to come out. not going to be impacted because of this storm but what about november's numbers? >> that's a great question. sometime these major events, those storms are right in the middle of the reference period during which bls measures employment. but sandy is occurring almost directly between ocbe's reference month and november's reference month, actually-- impact of this on the official government numbers for employment. >> tom: just 20 seconds left but damage to confidence at all, consumer confidence? >> no, not. people are resilint. they will see tough this. they'll get back to the business of rebuilding which of course is a plus for gdp and bacto that activity
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very quickly. >> we hope it happens faster than not. joeling prakken with us, a look at the economy, macroeconomic advisors. it may seem a bit premature to talk about the stock mar's reaction to hurricane sandy even before the storm is fully hit the east coast but to state the obvious there won't be any stock market reaction until after the exchange reopens possibly on wednesday. we'll talk about that with the senior equity strategist at wells fargo advisors with news st. louis and rob stein. he is is us from the c.m.e. group in chicago. we have the midwest represented here, because of the impact on the east coast. scott, beginning with you. what is the short term impact later this week from the markets being closed for two days? >> well, well i think the short term impact if we looked at where the futures closed coming in from the weekend t looked like today, had we been trading at least the start would have been-- would have been a little nasty. so for me, we're in the middle of a pullback here. i don't think it's going to be massive. i think probably in the s&p
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500 it wouldn't surprise me to see us trade down to the 13060, 70 level, something like that. we have been looking for a pullback, hoping for more of a pullback. i think we will get one and i think it's an opportunity. >> tom: i will ask you in a moment. rob, do you agree. do you think the selling continues on wednesday? >> i do. i mean it's tough to predict one day and getting close to the end 69 month where there is a natural demand but i do concur that it looks like a correction or pullback is occur-- occurring. and economic fundamentals aren't deteriorating. in fact, they're lightly improving. so i would put money to work on that as well. >> tom: talk to us about that, rob, in terms of the economic fundamentals. we're going to get that jobs report on friday. it is showing slow but steady, nothing too exciting. not a lot et-- exciting except maybe the housing market when it comes to the economy. >> sure. the housing marketas kind of been quietly supporting some of e economic data, you had last week's jobless
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cla improving a little bit. and this number, i don't think there is wide expectations, 100, 120,000 which will be consistent with what the economy is doing in the gdp and 1.will to 3% range. but those are fundamentals that could support a higher equity prices, so until you see a few months of negative numbers or much lower numbers from job growth and gdp slipping below 1%, i think buying on dips and you know, watching the market kind confi creep higher is the game plan. >> scott, you mentioned are you looking at opportunities. and you may have an opportunity later this week when the market reopens. what-- what ought you to be looking at? >> well, some of the sectors that we like are tied to the cyclicality of the economy. i any we're going to continue at a modest or slow gdp pace here in the states. i think globally the recovery is going to continue a little bit slower than it has been. in the past. but still continuing forward. so things like the consumer
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discretionary sector still like technology which has been hit here lately. tollers which is certainly hit here i think people are discounting maybe even more of a slowdown in china. and perhaps even more of a slowdown if that's possible in europe. so i think our analysis says you know, we-- chinese economic activity, possibly bottomed out here in the 7, 8% range. fanned we get a little bit of a surprise to the upside there or if europe is less bad or maybe even flattens out at some point in 2013, i think a sector like materials would do well, so we want to be not overweight the defensives. we want to play continued economic recovery. >> tom: looking for growth there, rob, how about it, is it on your buy list as well? >> you know, i'm not so sure i like overweighting technology at this point. it has come a long way. and i think it might take a little bit of a breather. consumer discretionaries i think should hold up pretty well.
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materials, i like it i would actually for the first time in many years put a toe in the water in financial. i think you might see a little overperformance there, after the drama of the end of this year, beginning of 2-13 is behind us. might be a good opportunity to buy some of the things that get thrown out with the drama and fiscal cliff. >> a lot of those banks have been thrown out, certainly over the past several years. guys, we have to leave it there. a couple of market pros from the midwest, scott ren with wells fargo and rob stein withaser asset manager. >> tom: sandy has brought some modes of transportation to a stand still across the mid-
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atlantic and northeastern u.s. more than 12,000 flights have been cancelled, and the list grows by the hour. airports from washington d.c. north to boston are virtually shut-in. on the rails, amtrak service throughout the region has been canceled through tomorrow. as far is freight is concerned, the largest rail operator on the east coast c.s.x. closed its tracks from virginia to new york state. customers have been told to expect delays of at least three days. ports from virginia to boston are closed down. that includes the nation's third busiest, the port of new york- new jersey. it's the busiest cargo port on the east coast. at least three oil refineries in not the northeast have shut down or reduced their gasoline production bracing for sandy. while east coast refineries in the forecast path of this storm represent really a small slice of the country's ca passit ot make gasoline, production in the northeast is estimated to be only a third of what's normal for the region. and that has been met with higher gasoline futures. in electronic trading today
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gasoline futures shot up 2%, still too early to know what impact it may have on pump prices. jerrod kit is with us from the linn group from the c.m.e. group in chicago. what kind of risk does this storm pose to east coast refiners? >> well, thank you for having me, first of all. and you know, in the long run the risks are fairly minimal. in fact, this is probably a bearish market event in total. ir's going to reduce demand to a certain extent. it is lost demand you will never recover. people just aren't going to travel over this time frame. and it's important to remember that the long-term price of gasoline is determined by crude oil. and right now what you've got in the u.s. is a situation where you have ample crude oil inventory and relatively tight product inventory. >> and just kind of systemic problem. >> that is on the demand side. >> the problem s let's talk about supplies here, real quick. sorry for the interruption. but i do want to talk about inventories because lots of oil inventories but on the
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east coast are close to five year lows as we are seeing this production shut in. so the real question for folks in the next several days is, how sez it going to move to be able to move gasoline into the east coast? >> it could be extremely tricky. so over the next week or two will you have extreme logistics issuesment you will probably see a spike in the price at the pump. that will eventually alleviate. but the problem is overall in terms of crude oil, you've got plenty of flow around the world. it's going to end up getting back to probably depressed gasoline prices again. you're going to hurt demand. -- due to-- reduce pump prices about 20 or 30%. >> tom: what about heating oil though, we are obviously in the heating oil inventory phase for a lot of those homes in the northeast. what does that look like on prices here from sandy? >> heating oil has a little bit of downside risk too,
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but obviously the winner in the spreads. you said it you are going into the winter season which is positive and inventories are the lowest levels since 2008. that is all across the united states. and with heating oil there are two components to t business til till-- distal-- distillate and in that you have diesel and heating oil and both combined are running very, very low. so in terms of the broader complex heating oil will be better supported than gasoline or crude oil. >> tom: that is the energy complex because of hurricane sandy on the east coat, jerrod kit with the linn group. it is not uncommon for a big storm to mean big business for stores like lows an it's not uncommon for a big storm like sandy to mean big business at stores like lowe's and home depot, as people stock up on supplies, and materials needed for repairs. ruben ramirez reports from new jersey. >> reporter: christmas trees and holiday decorations were not on anyone's list as customers tried to stock up on supplies ahead of hurricane sandy's landfall here in new jersey. >> the big demand is generators, sand, tarps, rope, bungee cords, gas cans, basically anything you can use to help prepare yourself for the storm.
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>> reporter: with as many as 10 million people predicted to lose electricity, light and power were what last-minute shoppers were after. >> they're buying all of the flashlights, d batteries to go along with the flashlights, lanterns. >> reporter: today's business comes as the stores have benefited this year from a pick- up in the housing market. but, with winds and rain already picking up speed, people wanted to be sure items they were looking for were in stock before they left home. >> people have been calling. the phones have been going crazy quite honestly. people want to know if we've got it coming in. >> tom: there was some economic news today. american consumers saved less money, and spent more in september. consumer spending rose 0.8%, the
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fastest jump since february. but it came at the expense of personal savings, which was 3.3%, it's lowest level since last november. at the same time, personal income was up 0.4%. >> tom: hurricane sandy is disrupting markets, the economy, schools, families, and the election. president obama suspended campaigning to oversee the government's storm response. governor mitt romney canceled campaign events in the key states of virginia and new
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hampshire. darren gersh tonight looks at the impact with election day one week away. >> reporter: both campaigns say they have stopped fundraising and campaigning in states in sandy's path. governor romney was still looking for votes today in ohio, iowa and wisconsin, but his campaign says he will stay away from the key swing states of virginia and new hampshire to let emergency workers there focus on the storm. both candidates say this is a time for the nation to come together. >> i am not worried at this point about the impact on the election. i'm worried about the impact on families, and i'm worried about the impact on our first responders. i'm worried about the impact on our economy and on transportation. the election will take care of itself next week. >> i would like to ask you who are here today to think about making a contribution to the red cross or another relief agency, to be of help if you possibly can in any way you can imagine to help those in harm's way. >> reporter: not only has sandy charted an expensive and deadly path, the storm has timed its attack to disrupt the closest presidential election in many
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decades. the historic storm has shifted the nation's focus away from politics and cost both candidates opportunities to rally voters in key states. whether sandy shifts the political balance in this close election may depend on the extent of the damage and the success of the government's reaction to the storm and its aftermath. darren gersh, "n.b.r.," washington. >> tom: tomorrow on "n.b.r." david ruder former chairman of the securities and exchange commission weighs in on what it takes to close the markets, and what it will take to reopen them, after hurricane sandy. as we mentioned, the last time the u.s. stock market closed for >> tom: that's "nightly business report" for monday, october 29. good night everyone, and stay safe, we'll see you online at: and back here tomorrow night. captioning sponsored by wpbt
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captioned by media access group at wgbh >> join us anytime at there, you'll find full episodes of the program, complete show transcripts and all the market stats. also follows us on our facebook page at bizrpt. and on twitter @bizrpt.
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